MetaPicks

QUANT +EV ENGINE

Multi-Book No-Vig Devigger โ€ข Monte Carlo Sim โ€ข AI Slip Doctor
Target Slip:
โš™๏ธ ๐Ÿ“– Active Slip 6
METAPICKS V3.0 HANDBOOK

๐Ÿ“– MetaPicks Help Center โ€” Quant +EV Guide & Reference

Complete guide to all MetaPicks modules: 1. Unified +EV Screener, 2. Slip Builder & Kelly Math, 3. No-Vig Calculator, 4. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Bankroll & CLV Tracker, 5. โœจ AI Copilot & Goblin Decoder, ๐Ÿ”’ Private Admin .env Vault, and 6. ๐Ÿ“ 35-File Codebase.

PDF + Site Synced
Step 1 โ€ข Spot Real Value
Ignore "Last 5" Traps

Look for ๐ŸŸข GREAT VALUE badges where devigged Pinnacle/FanDuel/DraftKings odds beat the break-even bar. Avoid ๐Ÿ”ด L10 TRAP coin flips.

Step 2 โ€ข Pick Optimal Structure
Play 6-Flex or 5-Flex

6-Pick Flex (54.21%) and 5-Pick Flex (54.25%) have the lowest per-leg break-even hurdle on PrizePicks, whereas 2-Pick Power demands 57.74%.

Step 3 โ€ข Size & Audit
Quarter-Kelly + AI Slip Doctor

Risk 1%โ€“2.5% of your bankroll per entry using Quarter-Kelly (0.25x) and run the ๐Ÿฉบ AI Slip Doctor to catch negative-EV legs before locking in.

1. Unified +EV Screener & 4-Pillar Inspector

index.html โ€ข screenerController.js

Strips sportsbook vig across Pinnacle, FanDuel, and DraftKings and compares true win probability against your chosen PrizePicks break-even bar (54.21% on a 6-Pick Flex).

  • ๐ŸŸข GREAT VALUE / SOLID PLAY: Picks clearing the break-even bar after removing bookmaker vig.
  • ๐Ÿ”ด L10 TRAP โ€” AVOID: Warns when a player has an 80%โ€“90% Last-10 hit rate (like Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Pts) but Vegas already bumped the line to a -115 / -115 (50.0% coin flip).
  • ฮ” Line Discrepancy: Highlights props where PrizePicks is lagging the sportsbook line by โ‰ฅ 0.5 points.

2. Slip Builder, Fractional Kelly & Break-Even Math

pages/slip-builder.html โ€ข slipMath.js

Solves the exact binomial payout distribution across all flex tiers and sizes your entry wager safely using Quarter-Kelly (0.25x) math.

  • Auto-Fill Best +EV Legs: Loads the top 2โ€“6 highest-edge plays into your active slip in one click.
  • Same-Game Correlation Signal: Detects multiple legs from the same matchup so you can verify positive game script correlation.
  • Break-Even Reference Table: 6-Flex (54.21%), 5-Flex (54.25%), 3-Power (55.03%), 4-Flex (56.89%), 2-Power (57.74%).

3. Standalone Multi-Book No-Vig Calculator

pages/devigger.html โ€ข devigMath.js

Enter any two-way American odds pair (e.g., -145 / +115) to strip the bookmaker's hold and view true win probabilities across Multiplicative, Additive, and Power methods.

  • +EV CLEAR vs. NO EDGE Cards: Instantly shows which of the 5 PrizePicks slip structures are profitable at that exact devigged win percentage.

4. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Public Bankroll & CLV Bet Tracker

pages/bankroll-tracker.html

Consumer-facing bankroll dashboard tracking your Actual Bankroll vs. Expected +EV Trend ($EV) curve and Closing Line Value (CLV) beat rate.

  • Log Settled Entries: Record Flex 5/6 (2x), Flex 6/6 (25x), Power 3/3 (6x), Flex 4/6 Money Back (0.4x), or Missed (0x) outcomes with +CLV tracking.
  • 3 Golden Bankroll Rules: Risk 1%โ€“2.5% per slip, judge decisions by CLV beat rate, and stick to 5- & 6-Pick Flex entries.

5. โœจ Free AI Copilot & Goblin/Demon Decoder

pages/ai-copilot.html โ€ข goblinDecoder.js

Run the 1-click ๐Ÿฉบ AI Slip Doctor, ask beginner strategy questions, paste breaking injury tweets, or test Green Goblins and Red Demons using reciprocal payout math (1 รท kept_probability).

  • Goblin & Demon Protection: Flags overpriced Goblins where PrizePicks slashes your payout by more than the win-probability boost justifies.

6. โš™๏ธ Private Admin .env Vault & 35-File Codebase

pages/api-hub.html โ€ข backend/env_loader.py

Click the discreet โš™๏ธ Admin button in the top-right header to unlock your private developer view, or inspect all 35 files in Tab 6 (๐Ÿ“ Multi-File Project Tree).

  • Zero Browser localStorage Secrets: All 11 API keys and endpoints (ODDS_API_KEY, SHARP_API_KEY, GEMINI_API_KEY) live in metapicks/.env (chmod 600) and are verified by python3 backend/security_audit.py.

๐Ÿ“Š MetaPicks Master Break-Even & Modifier Cheat Sheet

Slip Structure Payout Multipliers Required Per-Leg Win % Implied Fair Odds MetaPicks Verdict
6-Pick Flex 25x (6/6) โ€ข 2x (5/6) โ€ข 0.4x (4/6) 54.21% -118.4 ๐ŸŸข Best Overall (+EV Anchor)
5-Pick Flex 10x (5/5) โ€ข 2x (4/5) โ€ข 0.4x (3/5) 54.25% -118.6 ๐ŸŸข Tied for Best Flex Value
3-Pick Power 6x (3/3 All-or-Nothing) 55.03% -122.4 ๐Ÿ”ต Best Power Structure
4-Pick Flex 5x (4/4) โ€ข 1.5x (3/4) 56.89% -132.0 ๐ŸŸก High Vig โ€” Avoid
2-Pick Power 3x (2/2 All-or-Nothing) 57.74% -136.6 ๐Ÿ”ด Steepest Hurdle